Is it true that third-party candidates are “spoilers” stripping votes away from the most similar mainstream candidate and ushering in the election of a candidate who could not prevail in any two-party contest?
On the national stage, Teddy Roosevelt running as the Bull Moose party candidate in 1912, pulled 27% of the popular vote and 88 Electoral College votes, spoiling the reelection of William Howard Taft and ushering in the presidency of Woodrow Wilson.
Here in Arizona, we also have some experience with the third-party spoiler phenomenon. In 1986 Republican Evan Mecham won a three-way race for governor defeating Democrat turned Independent Bill Schulz and Democrat Carolyn Warner. Mecham garnered 40% of the vote. Fifteen months later, Mecham was impeached and removed from office for obstructing justice and misusing state funds.
“There are always too many Democratic congressmen, too many Republican congressmen and not enough U.S. congressmen.”
Author Unknown
So, what are voters to think of the emergence of two new parties here in Arizona, No Labels and the Forward Party? No Labels already qualified for the 2024 ballot, and the Forward Party is pursuing the same. Can a centrist, third-party candidate actually win in Arizona?
According to Ed Gogek1, a third-party candidate can succeed as more than just a spoiler if they are willing to employ a strategic approach. He suggests a successful third-party strategy avoids evenly divided districts and instead focuses upon promoting candidates running against incumbents in party-safe districts like CD 7 (Grijalva) and CD 9 (Gosar).
Recent history demonstrates that the mainstream parties are not interested in mounting a challenge in these “safe” districts. Last year in Arizona the incumbents in two congressional districts, five senate districts and 10 house districts effectively ran unopposed (Gogek). A Forward Party analysis notes that of the roughly 500,000 elected positions in the U.S. 70 percent are uncontested.
Maybe we are finally seeing an opportunity for moderate third-party candidates to succeed here in Arizona. Do you think that Arizona’s legislature would better represent its constituents if not controlled solely by Republicans or Democrats? Wouldn’t it be great to find out?
For more information on the Forward Party, www.forwardparty.com. For more information on No Labels, www.nolabels.org.
1 How a Centrist Third-Party Can Win Elections in Arizona—Arizona Republic, March 25, 2023.
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